Coronavirus will affect exports and imports: WTO

The coronavirus could further weaken the flows of exports and imports in the first quarter of 2019, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected in a report released Monday.

The barometer is based on the best available prospective data. This report, however, does not take into account recent developments, such as the outbreak of COVID-19, the new coronavirus disease, which may further reduce business prospects.

Currently, the real-time measurement of the WTO Barometer of Trade in Goods is 95.5, less than the 96.6 recorded last November, and well below 100, the reference value of the index.

“This result below the trend could be further reduced due to a new global health threat,” said the Organization.

The WTO Merchandise Trade Barometer is a leading composite indicator designed to indicate current and short-term commercial developments in export and import flows.

Likewise, the Barometer of Trade in Goods replaces the World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) and will be combined with a complementary indicator for trade in services (the Barometer of Trade in Services) from September 2019.

Exports and imports

The general index of the Barometer of Trade in Goods combines information on several component indices that represent trade: related variables that include export orders, international air transport (IATA), container shipping, sale and production of automobiles, electronic components and raw materials agricultural.

The Barometer of Trade in Goods anticipates changes in the trajectory of the volume of world merchandise trade in relation to recent trends in an average of three to four months, so, for example, the value of the index for January would provide an indication of Commercial conditions in April-May.

As such, this indicator complements the statistics and trade forecasts of the WTO and other organizations. Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings above 100 suggest growth above the trend, while those below 100 indicate growth below the trend.