UNCTAD: A positive start, a dismal outlook for Global Trade in 2023

According to the latest UNCTAD Global Trade Update report, in the first quarter of 2023 the growth of international trade was positive for both goods and services. On the other hand, the UN trade organization states that the second quarter has seen a slowdown due to various factors such as inflation, financial vulnerabilities, the war in Ukraine, and geopolitical tensions.

The trade of goods increased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023, this being around $100,000 million dollars, while the world trade of services increased by 2.8% adding $50,000 million dollars compared to the previous quarter.

In addition, UNCTAD points out that there has been an increase in trade relations between trading blocks, closing between partner countries to do business, and a decrease in the diversification of trading partners, causing world trade to become more concentrated among the main relationships commercial. It highlights a decrease in the interdependence between the United States and China, the impact of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and BREXIT on bilateral trade trends.

On the other hand, there are notable variables between major economies and regional trade trends. Brazil, India, the United States and the European Union all had significant quarterly increases in import and export figures, although their trade trends were more moderate between January and March 2023, with the exception of export growth from China and India.

International trade grew in all regions except Russia and Central Asia, and while there was growth in East Asia, it was below average, according to the report. Despite the fact that the first quarter saw a decline in trade value in most regions, there were regions such as the Pacific, North America and Africa that had marginal growth. Intraregional trade followed similar patterns, with African trade increasing by 3%.