US–China Trade Slumps in 2025 as Tariffs Redraw Global Shipping Map

In 2025, new tariffs triggered a sharp contraction in U.S.–China trade. U.S. imports from China fell 28% year over year, while exports to China dropped 38%, signaling a structural shift in global supply chains rather than a temporary disruption.

Southeast Asian countries emerged as key beneficiaries of this realignment. Indonesia led with 34% growth in exports to the U.S., followed by Thailand with a 28% increase, as companies diversified sourcing away from China.

Despite the overall decline, late-year data showed signs of stabilization on the export side. U.S. exports to China improved in the fourth quarter, culminating in a 13% year-over-year increase in December—the first positive month of 2025. In contrast, U.S. imports from China remained deeply depressed through year-end with no recovery in sight.

The shipping industry has adjusted to lower trade volumes, as reflected in a sharp reduction in blank sailings, indicating that carrier capacity has adapted to the new tariff-driven baseline.

Looking ahead to 2026, uncertainty remains high. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of IEEPA tariffs, a decision that could significantly alter trade policy. Additional risk stems from potential new tariffs on countries trading with Iran, which could disrupt the recent U.S.–China trade de-escalation.

Overall shipping volumes are expected to stay below prior-year levels through at least May, weighed down by weak global trade growth, economic headwinds, and policy uncertainty. The data suggests a global shift toward protectionism, diversified supply chains, and growing questions about the future of free trade.